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08/27/2010 - University Place, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Byeong-Hun An defeated Max Homa, 1-up on Friday to advance into the semifinals of the U.S. Amateur Championship.
An's quarterfinal victory at Chambers Bay on Friday keeps hope for alive for the repeat. He was the youngest U.S. Amateur champion in history last year at Southern Hills and if he can successfully defend, An would become the first repeat winner since Tiger Woods captured three in a row from 1994-96.
An's semifinal opponent will be David Chung, who knocked out NCAA individual champion Scott Langley, 1-up. It's a rematch of last year's quarterfinals.
This semifinal match features a Stanford guy (Chung) versus a Cal guy (An). The two saw much of each other in Pac 10 action, but Saturday's match is for a spot in Sunday's final.
"Well, it's my luck, I guess, playing a Stanford guy," said An. "We were playing each other a lot of times this year in college, too. If I play well, I'll beat Stanford again."
The other semifinal on Saturday will feature Patrick Cantlay, a 1-up winner over Jed Dirksen in 20 holes, and Peter Uihlein, a 1-up winner over Oklahoma State teammate Morgan Hoffmann.
An was in control through most of his match, building a 3-up lead through 12. Homa chipped away and after an An bogey at 17, An's lead was only 1-up with one to go.
Neither player played the 18th very well and both left with pars. An left with another win and with a win on Saturday, no matter what happens on Sunday, a return visit to Augusta National next year for the Masters.
"I just want to forget about that," An said. "Tomorrow's another match. I have two more matches to go. But if I win tomorrow, I go back to Masters. I'm trying not to think about going back to the Masters. I have to win first."
Chung had an up and down battle with the NCAA champion from Illinois. The match was all-square through 13 holes, but Chung won 14 with a par to go 1-up. Chung birdied the 246-yard, par-three 15th to move 2-up.
Langley went down fighting. He birdied the 17th to cut the deficit to 1-down with one to go, but both birdied the last to give the match to Chung.
Cantlay led after the turn, but Dirksen won 11 with a birdie and took the lead with a par at 14. Dirksen stayed 1-up through 17 holes, but a bogey at the last forced extra holes.
Both players parred the first playoff hole, but a Dirksen bogey at the second put Cantlay into the semifinals.
Uihlein, who could celebrate a U.S. Amateur title Sunday on his 21st birthday, will be waiting for him.
Uihlein and his college teammate battled throughout the match with neither player grabbing more than a 1-up lead.
Hoffmann squared the match at the 14th hole, but Uihlein inched in front with a birdie at 16. Both golfers parred out and it was Uihlein off to the semifinals.
<< Rams WR Avery has significant knee injury
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Rams wide receiver Donnie Avery
suffered an apparently serious knee injury during Thursday night's 36-35
preseason win over New England.
Avery, who departed after recording two catches f
<< Lions place DE DeVries on IR
Allen Park, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions placed defensive end Jared
DeVries on injured reserve Friday, officially ending his 2010 season.
DeVries has been dealing with knee problems all training camp and he had
arthroscopic
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Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Briscoe will start on the pole for an IZOD
IndyCar Series race at Chicagoland Speedway for the third year in a row after
winning Friday's qualifying for the PEAK AntiFreeze and Motor Oil Indy 300.
With In
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Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Freddie Ljungberg will return to Seattle on
Saturday for first time since being the first designated player ever traded in
Major League Soccer, as his new club Chicago visits Qwest Field.
Ljungberg joined S
La. Tech football suspends four >>
Ruston, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Louisiana Tech head football coach Sonny Dykes
announced indefinite suspensions Friday for four players due to a violation of
team rules.
The four in question, wide receivers Tim Molton, R.P. Stuart and Cruz W
BYU to use two starting QBs >>
Provo, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brigham Young University will have two starting
quarterbacks for the upcoming season.
Cougars head coach Bronco Mendenhall made the announcement on Friday that the
two-quarterback system will be used, feat
Kaiserslautern shocks Bayern Munich >>
Kaiserslautern, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ivo Ilicevic and Srdjan Lakic
scored in a one-minute span late in the first half and Kaiserslautern shocked
Bayern Munich, 2-0, on Friday at Fritz Walter Stadium.
Ilicevic scored in the 36th
Alouettes QB Calvillo rules self out for B.C. game >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Montreal Alouettes quarterback Anthony
Calvillo will not play on September 3 against the British Columbia Lions.
TSN of Canada and CFL.ca both reported on Friday that Calvillo ruled himself
out for
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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